U.S. Politics

A clever look at Democratic primary preferences—who is being considered, and who is NOT

Lots of ways to read this chart, and I’m sure you guys will have fun offering your takes. Here’s mine.

Best positioned at this time: Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris. Their “not considering” are surprisingly low in relation to their overall name recognition. That blue bar looks great for all three. 

As an aside, it’s amazing how well-known Buttigieg is despite having spent essentially nothing—another reminder that we no longer need “small retail states” like Iowa and New Hampshire to help give underdogs a boost. Those states are an anachronism from a bygone era. This should be the last time the party allows them to go first. 

Beto O’Rourke at 18% “not considering” is brutal, given how well liked he was in 2018. Oh well. Another poll is again showing Kirsten Gillibrand as supremely unpopular. She’s blamed by too many for Al Franken’s resignation which is unfortunate. She did the right thing. 

Any candidate hitting 20% or higher on “not considering” is in serious trouble. Bill DeBlasio is comically unpopular. Is he really going to jump in? Joe Biden has already engendered significant resistance, despite just having entered the race. Bernie Sanders is the least-liked candidate in the field. 

Why is Tammy Baldwin on this list?

The pollster also asked candidates a traditional horse race question, and the results were:

Biden 33, Sanders 17, Warren 16, Buttigieg 9, Harris 7, O’Rourke 4

If Biden dropped out: Sanders 21, Warren 19, Buttigieg 12, Harris 9, O’Rourke 7

If Sanders dropped out: Biden 31, Warren 19, Buttigieg 9, Harris 8, O’Rourke 4

Neither Sanders nor Biden are dropping out, but it gives us a sense of what might happen if either falters. 

Let me do something else—reorder the candidates by net difference between “considering” and “not considering:

The top of this list mostly matches the horserace questions, except for Sanders. His supporters are quite loyal, even if he generates the most antipathy of all the candidates. 

The bottom of that list is there for LOLs.

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