President TrumpDonald John TrumpWH spokesman: We're working with DHS, ICE to try to send undocumented immigrants to sanctuary cities Trump says he has legal right to send undocumented immigrants to sanctuary cities Sanders calls on Trump to scrap his trade plan MORE holds a "narrow lead" ahead of the 2020 election, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.
Goldman’s economists said the president is bolstered by “the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance,” in what is sure to be a “close call” election, according to Yahoo.
Even though his approval rating tends to be below 50 percent, Goldman said Trump is still likely to win a second term.
“President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” the bank said in their analysis, according to Yahoo.
“While we believe the majority of market participants expect President Trump to win a second term, we note that prediction markets point in the opposite direction and imply that the Democratic candidate has a 56% probability of winning and the Republican candidate has a 44% chance,” the bank said.
The analysts added that the results of the 2018 midterm, where Democrats retook the House, indicates Trump is at least in some trouble.
“Groups that most strongly supported President Trump in 2016 made up a smaller share of total voters in 2018 than they did in 2014,” the bank wrote, per Yahoo.